# Thailand Trends in Q2 2025: Songkran spike, TDAC launch, post-earthquake drag, and political escalation

Summary: Q2 2025 was defined by Songkran as the strongest measured Thai social topic, TDAC as the clearest foreigner logistics change, hotel-booking weakness after earthquake concerns, and the leaked-call political trigger that set up the Q3 crisis.

## Methodology

Separates hard behavioral data, search-trend data, social-listening data, forum counts, and news or event intensity instead of merging them into one fake demand score.

## Hard anchors

- h1_foreign_arrivals: 16.68M. Down 4.66 percent year over year.
- implied_q2_foreign_arrivals: ~7.13M. H1 minus Q1 full-quarter arrivals.
- songkran_social_engagement: 106,619,437 engagements from 219,455 messages. Strongest event-specific social-listening signal in the report.
- songkran_tourism_forecast: 26.5B baht; 476K international tourists; 4.42M domestic trips. Major travel and commercial anchor.
- tdac_launch: 2025-05-01. Major foreign-entry and resident re-entry logistics change.

## Thai-user topics

- 1. Songkran and festival-video intensity: Songkran was the strongest measured Thai social topic in the whole report.
- 2. Travel confidence after the earthquake: Hotel bookings weakened sharply after quake concerns across key cities.
- 3. Government schemes and subsidy anticipation: Travel subsidy intent rose sharply and later became one of Google's top breakout themes in Thailand.
- 4. AI and practical tools: AI remained elevated after Q1 and continued moving from novelty to practical use.
- 5. Politics and leaked-call scandal: The June scandal became the setup for the Q3 political crisis.

## Foreign-tourist topics

- 1. TDAC entry logistics: TDAC became mandatory from 1 May 2025 for foreign arrivals by air, land, and sea.
- 2. Songkran travel and safety: Songkran became a major foreign-tourist spending and safety topic, not only a domestic festival layer.
- 3. Earthquake aftershock on travel confidence: Post-quake cancellations and booking hesitation carried into Q2 decision-making.
- 4. Scam and trafficking concern: Q1 safety aftereffects remained active in foreign-traveler confidence through Q2.
- 5. Border tension and land crossings: Border tension started rising in late Q2 and became a major Q3 issue.

## Foreign-resident and expat topics

- 1. TDAC and re-entry logistics: TDAC applied broadly to foreign nationals entering Thailand, including residents returning from trips.
- 2. Political crisis: The leaked-call crisis became the start of the political sequence that dominated Q3.
- 3. Visas and reporting: Persistent structural resident intent around long stay, reporting, and status maintenance.
- 4. Tax, remittance, and banking: Foreign-source income tax treatment remained the verified tax concern; vague or stale cost-of-living search claims were not relied on.
- 5. Cost of living and rent: Cost-of-living remained a real resident topic, but stale search-growth figures were explicitly downgraded.

## Caveats

- Do not underweight TDAC relative to softer travel themes.
- Do not present the booking drop as a permanent tourism collapse.
- Do not present late-Q2 political tension as if Q3 had not yet become the shock quarter.

## Related URLs

- https://enjoythai.land/guides/thailand-digital-arrival-card-tdac/
- https://enjoythai.land/guides/songkran-travel-safety-thailand/
- https://enjoythai.land/guides/thailand-earthquake-building-safety-travel/
- https://enjoythai.land/research/thailand-trends-q2-2025/
- https://enjoythai.land/th/เที่ยวสงกรานต์อย่างปลอดภัย/

## Source refs

- Xinhua H1 2025 arrivals (Xinhua)
- Nation Thailand Q1 2025 arrivals (Nation Thailand)
- Wisesight Songkran 2025 social listening (Wisesight)
- Songkran 2025 tourism forecast (TAT / Bangkok Post / Nation)
- Thai Embassy Wellington TDAC guidance (Thai Embassy Wellington)
- U.S. Embassy Thailand TDAC notice (U.S. Embassy Thailand)
- Nation Thailand Songkran booking slowdown (Nation Thailand)
- Google Year in Search 2025 Thailand (Google)
- Government PRD Half-Half Plus (Government Public Relations Department)
- Reuters Paetongtarn removal coverage (Reuters)
- Official TDAC immigration portal (Thailand immigration / official TDAC portal)
- Reuters Wang Xing trafficking case (Reuters)
- Reuters July 2025 Thailand-Cambodia conflict coverage (Reuters)
- Thai Embassy Taipei DTV visa guidance (Thai Embassy Taipei)
- ASEAN NOW Thailand Life forums (ASEAN NOW)